STORY & PHOTOS BY GLENN NELSON
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If you are one of those who believes that life repeats itself, then you of course believe in cycles and trends. Which means you probably never panick over extremes.
Good, then this analysis is for you.
Earlier this week, we decried the absence of true posts around the country, and our Hot 100 rankings for the class of 2007 really rammed the point home - only 10 of the top 100 were classified as centers and only three of those received five-star ratings. A new fact of life or trend? Well, last year, we were wondering about the absence of elite point guards. Dymond Simon of Phoenix, Ariz., was the only five-star point.
(This is where all you life-repeatists chime in).
Look what we have here - eight five-star prospects at the point-guard position for 2007. So the lead guard did not go the way of the dinosaur. The position looks promising in 2008, in fact, led by the likes of Nikki Speed of Pasadena, Calif; Shay Selby of Cleveland, Ohio; Samantha Prahalis of Long Island, N.Y., and She'la White of Portsmouth, Va.
This year, the point-guard crop is brimming with prospects who can score as well as distribute and speed galore. Rhoads, from Slippery Rock, Pa., really is the only one of the five stars who breaks the MTV-generation mold with an old-school, truly pass-first mentality.
Our database doesn't yet distinguish between the different backcourt and forward positions - which is why we're doing that today - so the generic "guard" position was by far the deepest in the class of 2007. The wing guards, or shooting guards, are just about as deep as the point guards at the five-star level, which is led by Bjorklund, of Spokane, Wash., the nation's No. 2 overall prospect.
The "two's" are about as diverse a group as you can find, with Bjorklund being an all-world shooter, Strickland being a smooth creator, Gilbreath offerng oodles of length and winspan, Jones being the energizer bunny, Hemingway being an inside rock and Pohlen being the type of player who extracts every drop of her talent every minute she's on the floor.
If we were smart (and few ever have accused us of this), we'd have yet another backcourt category - combo guards. Some people are going to blanche at seeing Lucas, of Las Vegas, Nev., atop the point-guard rankings because she is such an explosive scorer and is known for that. However, when she wants to be - and, during the USA Basketball trials, she obviously did - she can be a spectacular table-setter.
Rushdan, from Wilmington, Del., is more of a point-guard type who can be moved over to wing guard for her scoring ability. Most coaches likely would play Jones, of Bloomfield, Colo., as the scoring guard, but she handles the ball and sees the court so well, she could operate as a larger point. Colson, from Houston, is a true hybrid, much like Lucas, but Pohlen really will offer lead-guard tendencies from the two position.
Not particularly deep, the wing-forward group made this 2007's glamour position. Moore, from Suwanee, Ga., of course was the nation's No. 1 player. Pedersen, from Mesa, Ariz., and Baugh, from Sacramento, Calif., are a pair of 6-foo-4 prospects who can run the floor and handle the ball and thus could be game-changers. Pedersen, in particular, also has the ability to play guard, in certain situations, introducing (or reintroducing) the old concept of the "swing" player (wing-forward/wing-guard combo). Montgomery, of Tacoma, Wash., is more along the lines of Moore, offering length, athleticism and variety in her skillset.
The power players - power forwards and posts - have got to feel a little lonely. There are only six of them, all told, in the five-star category. Some of the dearth of power forwards can be traced to our re-categorizing Baugh and Pedersen, who 10 years ago would have been fives (posts) and two years ago fours (power forwards). Thomas, of Orlando, Fla., is really a classic power forward in that she can score from the blocks, rebound, block shots, as well as really move down the floor. Mingo, from Atlanta, Ga., came as close as you can get to making Team USA without making it and is a mobile, high-rev and highly skilled player. Sanford, from Lynnwood, Calif., is up there with another Atlantan, Kelley Cain, as one of the nation's top shot-blockers.
And, finally, wither the post position? Well, though this year's trio of five-star prospects is excellent, the depth at this position doesn't look much better, at this point, in 2008. Kelsey Bone, of Sugar Land, Texas, has a real shot at being the No. 1 player in the country in 2009, with her select-teammate, Monique Oliver of Las Vegas, and Breanna Heater of Ashland, Ore., not far behind. However, this position does appear to be trending toward being an overall less skilled and deep one.
For forever, a coach simply stuck her tallest player in the middle of the lane and called her a center. Now those tall kids are insisting on dribbling and shooting jumpers and being called wings or guards.
Rim Shots
Further proof that the recruiting process is accelerating in the girl's game, as it already has with the boy's - Emilie Johnson, of Del Oro High School in Loomis, Calif., this week 
Emilie Johnson |
committed to Santa Barbara. Johnson is a point guard in the Class of 2008. There is one major, extenuating circumstance - Santa Barbara is Johnson's dream school, so it's understandable that she jumped at the offer. Johnson, who had a more-than-solid summer with East Bay Xplosion, eventually will join Courtney Collishaw, another UCSB commit who recently was ranked 67th in HoopGurlz's Hot 100 for the 2007 class. "The first time I visited the UCSB campus, I fell in love with it," Johnson said. "It was the summer before my freshman year and I set a goal for myself; play ball for the Gauchos! I’ve visited other campuses from traveling over the summers, but nothing ever came close to match how I felt about the Santa Barbara campus and basketball program. To be able to know that I’ve accomplished one of my goals and dreams is the best feeling in the world." ... Cal coach Joanne Boyle, who has a freshman from Senegal, Adji Ramatoulaye N'diaye, goes out of the country once again, gaining a commitment this week from Kelsey Adrian of British Columbia powerhouse, Brookswood High School in Langley. Adrian, who is attending the new Canadian Basketball Academy based in Hamilton, Ontario, this season, played for Canada at the U18 Americas qualifying tournament and presently is playing for the Canadian senior women's national team. ... Rebounding machine Tia Lewis, a 6-2 post out of Worth County, Ga., averaged 19.3 points and 19.1 boards as a junior and is said to have offers from Alabama, Clemson, Florida State, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Miami and Virgina Tech. ... Megan Elliot, a 6-1 wing at Pace Academy in Atlanta, Ga., has scheduled official visits at Bucknell (Oct. 28) and Lehigh (Oct. 21). Elliott, who averaged 13.6 points and shot 40.7 percent from the three-point line as a junior, also has some interest in East Carolina. ... Pace Academy also has a sophomore forward, Michelle Ivey, who is 6 feet and already has drawn interest from Auburn, Charlotte, Purdue and Vanderbilt.
Glenn Nelson is the publisher of HoopGurlz.com and the editor-in-chief of Scout Media (www.Scout.com), an online sports network and magazine-publishing company and subsidiary of Fox Interactive Media. Glenn also founded and coached the Dragons and Northwest HoopGurlz select girls basketball teams. He previously was a longtime, national-award-winning basketball columnist and writer for The Seattle Times. His work also has appeared in several national magazines and books. He is co-author of "Rising Stars: The Ten Best Players in the NBA" (Rosen Publishing, 2002). He can be reached at hoopgurlz@comcast.net.
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